Vance: Iran Fight Isn't a 'War'        09/04 06:24

   Vice President JD Vance on Thursday rejected the use of the word "war" to 
describe the U.S. fighting with Iran as he steered clear of predicting that the 
6-month-old conflict would be over by November's midterm elections, in which 
Republicans are trying to hang on to their narrow majorities in Congress.

   WASHINGTON (AP) -- Vice President JD Vance on Thursday rejected the use of 
the word "war" to describe the U.S. fighting with Iran as he steered clear of 
predicting that the 6-month-old conflict would be over by November's midterm 
elections, in which Republicans are trying to hang on to their narrow 
majorities in Congress.

   "I wouldn't call it a war," Vance said after being asked during a White 
House press briefing about whether the fighting could end before voters cast 
their ballots in the Nov. 3 congressional elections. "Right now, there is no 
active shooting."

   Vance's assertion came even as Iran fired at U.S. Gulf ally Kuwait on 
Thursday as it continued to retaliate for rounds of U.S. strikes on Iran 
earlier in the week.

   The vice president said the U.S. had a "responsibility" to carry out this 
week's strikes because Iran continued to target commercial vessels passing 
through the Strait of Hormuz.

   Vance's attempt to minimize the intensity of the fighting illuminates the 
difficult task at hand for Trump and his administration as he tries to persuade 
American voters to keep Republicans in control of Congress, even as the 
unpopular conflict -- one the White House said at its outset would last a 
matter of weeks -- has driven up gas prices and left consumers grappling with 
higher inflation.

   Vance said he didn't want to set "artificial timelines."

   "But when you ask, 'When will this end?' You're asking me a question like, 
'When will the Iranians stop shooting at ships?'" Vance said. "I think the 
reality is, I don't know the answer to that question. You would have to ask the 
Iranians."

   The administration in July faced scrutiny after it reclassified four fallen 
soldiers as well as dozens of wounded troops in its Defense Casualty Analysis 
System, which Pentagon officials have repeatedly pointed to as the definitive 
source on the numbers of dead and wounded from the conflict. Those killed or 
wounded in fighting after a brief ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran fell 
apart were classified in a new category called "Overseas Operations" after 
initially being tallied in the totals from the war.

   White House insists more oil is getting out of Gulf, but prices remain high

   Brent crude prices hovered above $95 per barrel Thursday. The international 
benchmark was around $72 per barrel the day before the conflict began.

   Still, Trump and his aides have sought to push that the U.S. Navy is in 
control of the Strait of Hormuz, where about 20% of the world's traded oil 
passed before the war. They insist a near prewar level of Gulf oil is now 
making its way out of the critical waterway.

   Vance at Thursday's press briefing said the U.S. escorted about 15 million 
barrels of oil on Wednesday. This was after Energy Secretary Chris Wright told 
CNBC on Wednesday that 17 million barrels were carried through the strait on 
Monday with assistance from the U.S. Navy. About 20 million barrels of Gulf oil 
flowed through the strait prior to the start of the war.

   But ship traffic through the strait remains well below prewar levels, 
according to independent firms that track marine traffic.

   There were 102 transits last week and 126 the week before, according to 
shipping data company Lloyd's List Intelligence, compared with 130 or more per 
day before the war.

   Over the past 28 days, 5 million barrels a day have exited the strait on 
average, according to TankerTrackers.com. Other recent estimates have varied 
from 2 million barrels per day to 6 million barrels per day.

   Trump has tried to soothe volatile markets

   Over the course of the war, Trump has repeatedly reported progress in 
negotiations or called off threats of military action at the last moment when 
global markets have become jittery. And markets have reacted swiftly to his 
public signals of peace or hints of progress.

   "The administration is still jawboning oil markets," said Rosemary Kelanic, 
Middle East director at Defense Priorities, of the administration's claims of 
dramatically increased flows of oil. "And they appear to be doing it again to 
keep prices from going too high, so that they can extend the timeline before 
there's a worse price spike."

   With Iran's refusal to back down in the face of the U.S. military campaign, 
Trump has settled on a dual-prong approach that combines economic pressure with 
threats of an escalation in force, if necessary.

   Trump has consistently emphasized that the campaign launched by the U.S. and 
Israel has been devastating for Iran's navy and air force. Iranian officials 
have said the country has suffered $270 billion in direct and indirect damage. 
Israeli military strikes in the first weeks of the war wiped out much of the 
theocratic government's leadership structure, including its Supreme Leader 
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

   Still, Iran has found leverage through its own strikes on the strait and 
Gulf allies of the United States. But the administration has sought to make the 
case that the waterway will become less important by the day, even as it 
asserts that more oil is getting through.

   Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a Fox Business interview this week 
that the Strait of Hormuz will become a "worthless piece of water" within two 
years as new land pipelines planned for the region bypass the energy 
chokepoint. Trump himself took to social media on Thursday to highlight a news 
report about Syria's effort to transform the port of Baniyas on the 
Mediterranean coast into a westward route to international markets for Gulf 
exporters.

   Meanwhile, Iran and Oman have recently discussed a phased approach to 
jointly managing ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

   Trump settles into holding pattern before midterms, analysts say

   The administration maintains it's making progress economically choking off 
Iranian hard-liners, including the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. 
At the moment, it would be a leap for Trump to agree to any plan that puts Iran 
in position to claim control of the strait, analysts say.

   "I find it hard to believe the president would agree to anything that hands 
back any modicum of IRGC control over the strait that has been wrested away," 
said Richard Goldberg, who served as a senior adviser on Iran policy in Trump's 
first administration.

   Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for 
International Peace, said Iran does not appear ready to "let Trump out of the 
box" despite the massive pain being inflicted on its economy.

   At the same time, Miller said, Trump seems to have settled into a holding 
pattern ahead of the midterms -- one in which he avoids both a return to the 
full-throttle bombardment of Iran and making any accommodations to Tehran on 
the Strait of Hormuz.

   "The White House doesn't want a massive war, and they don't want to be seen 
as offering massive concessions," Miller said. "The tack they are taking avoids 
both of those things."